Researchers at The University of Manchester warn that rising temperatures could drive a substantial expansion of fungal pathogens across Europe, with outcomes hinging on global climate actions. Under a high-emissions scenario (SSP585), the habitat suitable for Aspergillus flavus is projected to grow by about 16 percent in the next 15 years, potentially putting 1 million more people at risk of respiratory infection.
Even more alarming, Aspergillus fumigatus — the most common cause of life-threatening lung infections — could see its range expand by 77.5 percent, exposing up to 9 million additional Europeans to spores. These projections come from climate and disease-modelling work led by Dr. Norman van Rhijn, mapping future distributions of three major pathogens: A. flavus, A. fumigatus and A. niger.
“Changes in environmental factors, such as humidity and extreme weather events, will change habitats and drive fungal adaptation and spread,” Dr. van Rhijn said. Fungi possess large, malleable genomes that enable rapid adaptation to new environments, making them poised to exploit warming climates.
Alarmingly, the emergence of antifungal resistance is being accelerated by agricultural practices. The same azole compounds used to treat human aspergillosis are deployed as fungicides on crops, selecting for resistant strains that can infect both plants and people.
The study highlights that filamentous Aspergillus species already infect a vast range of hosts — including mammals, birds, honeybees and corals — and contaminate crops with harmful mycotoxins. Aspergillus niger and section Flavi species spoil produce pre- and post-harvest, threatening food security as climate shifts favor their proliferation.
“We’ve already seen the emergence of the fungus Candida auris due to rising temperatures, but, until now, we had little information of how other fungi might respond to this change in the environment. Fungi are relatively under researched compared to viruses and parasites, but these maps show that fungal pathogens will likely impact most areas of the world in the future. Raising awareness and developing effective interventions for fungal pathogens will be essential to mitigate the consequences of this,” Dr. van Rhijn added.
While Europe braces for increased pathogen spread, some regions — particularly parts of Africa — could become too hot for certain fungi to survive, potentially disrupting ecosystem functions like nutrient recycling. Yet the loss of beneficial fungi could have cascading effects on soil health and carbon cycling.
Viv Goosens, Research Manager at Wellcome, emphasized the urgency: “Fungal pathogens pose a serious threat to human health by causing infections and disrupting food systems. Climate change will make these risks worse. To address these challenges, we must fill important research gaps. By using models and maps to track the spread of fungi, we can better direct resources and prepare for the future.”
With less than 10 percent of an estimated 1.5 to 3.8 million fungal species described—and only a tiny fraction genome-sequenced—experts call for dramatic investment in fungal research. Wellcome has pledged over £50 million to accelerate studies on fungal biology, diagnostics and treatments to avert a looming public-health and agricultural crisis.
The study has been published in Research Square.
